This study provides a quantitative risk assessment for five key food commodities in
West Java, Red Bird's Eye Chili, Regular Grade Rice, Packaged Cooking Oil, Broiler
Chicken Meat, and Broiler Chicken Eggs, using daily price data from the Sistem
Informasi Pengendalian Inflasi Daerah (SILINDA) portal from January 1, 2021, to
April 20, 2024. By comparing symmetric and asymmetric GARCH specifications,
the analysis first identifies the optimal volatility model for each series before deriving
one-day 95% Value-at-Risk (VaR) thresholds. The model selection process revealed
that asymmetric eGARCH models provided the best fit for Red Bird's Eye Chili,
Packaged Cooking Oil, Broiler Chicken Meat, and Broiler Chicken Eggs, while a
symmetric sGARCH model was optimal for Regular Grade Rice. The corresponding
95% VaR analysis, which establishes an evidence-based "tolerance band," showed
that Red Bird's Eye Chili has the highest potential for daily fluctuation, with a
maximum allowable drop of 4.08% and a rise of 21.57%. The risk band for Regular
Grade Rice was between a 1.94% drop and a 2.01% rise. The remaining commodities
exhibited greater price stability: Packaged Cooking Oil (1.06% drop, 0.95% rise),
Broiler Chicken Meat (0.72% drop, 0.66% rise), and Broiler Chicken Eggs (0.38%
drop, 1.08% rise). The prevalence of asymmetric models indicates most of these food
markets are more sensitive to bad news than good news. The commodity-specific
VaR thresholds offer precise, data-driven guardrails for policymakers to monitor
market stability and guide timely interventions, highlighting the need for tailored
strategies rather than a one-size-fits-all approach.