Demand forecasting is important in any part of business including retail. It assists
to determine the order quantity from suppliers, safety stock in inventory, and
inventory management for normal selling condition and for when there would be
promotions (marketing strategy like discounts). CV. Perdana Mandiri has a clothing
store with inventory problems (overstock and understock). As per request from the
company, the name of the clothing store is disguised as X clothing store. A forecast
tool was developed using Microsoft Excel to help X clothing store carries out
demand forecast easily. The methods used in the forecast tool were simple
averages, moving averages, and exponential smoothing (single exponential
smoothing, double exponential smoothing, and triple exponential smoothing).
Forecasting was done by grouping their SKUs to a family code group. Trial and
error were done to achieve the best forecasting method with the minimum forecast
error in every code group. All sixty-six code groups were forecasted, and it resulted
in sixty-one code groups with triple exponential smoothing as their best methods,
three code groups with single exponential smoothing as their best methods, and
two code groups with simple average method as their best forecasting method